12/10/08 | by tomsblog

| Categories: Welcome

I haven't gone out of my way to promote this blog as yet, but a few people found my first posting. Thank you! Kym hit the nail on the head. The lower price points are moving better than the higher priced homes in Tacoma, University Place and Fircrest, probably for the very reasons she cites in her comment. First time buyers are out hunting for good deals. Importantly, they do not have homes to sell, which means they are in a position to act when they find something. Lending standards have tightened, so some of those deals don't sail through to closing the way they once did, but the fact is, those are the houses that are moving. So your gut, Kym, is right on the money! You win the Golden Gut award. Maybe I'll come up with a more appealing name, or maybe Kim, as debut recipient, might be inclined to suggest one.

The best price category in terms of Sales Ratio is sub $200,000. Absorption there, while not great, is at least in an acceptible range. What is very striking about this study from today is the number of pending sales over $700,000. I don't recall a time when there were ZERO pending sales in such a sweeping range.

Pending Active Sales Ratio
Overall 104 733 14.2%
Sub $200K 29 127 22.8%
$200-$300K 43 249 17.3%
$300-$400K 20 150 13.3%
$400-$500K 7 72 9.7%
$500-$600K 2 52 3.8%
$600-$700K 7 26 26.9%
$700-$800K 0 21 0.0%
$800-$1m 0 24 0.0%
Over $1m 0 22 0.0%

Is this bad news? NOT if you are a buyer! This is what they call a buyer's market... not a waiter's market. Interest rates are at an historically low point. Money is affordable, inventory is plentiful, and prices are depressed. I don't have to brainstorm my next posts. This study leads me in the direction I want to go. Stay tuned for more on why buyers should not be sidelined by dire news stories about the economy. In my opinion, there are great times to buy and great times to sell. We won't know for sure until the dust settles and December 2008 is in the rear view mirror, but I am increasingly of the opinion that now might just be the time to buy that Tacoma real estate.

2 feedbacks » •

2 comments

Comment from: Steve [Visitor]

Tom, You sound well-studied and have a good grasp of the stats. I am afraid you fell victim to the classic realtor's tendency. It is ALWAYS a "good time to buy." If your blog were older, perhaps we could go back and see in late 2005, 2006, 2007 that you were saying it was a good time to buy, "in order not to get priced out of the ever-rising market"?? Was it really a good time to buy then? At the top of the curve? No. Sure, prices are down (from their falsely inflated prices), but are they really down enough? What if this "good time to buy" is followed by a further falling of 5-10-20%. That would make this actually a bad time to buy, right? I will wait for the day when I see an agent say it is a bad time to buy ("wait for one year, dear client"). I will take his number and have him call me when it is really a good time. I am afraid I will wait a long time to hear an agent say that.

01/07/09 @ 08:15

Comment from: tomsblog [Member]

Thanks, Steve. It's a bad time to buy. Call me next year.

Just kidding. My remark wasn't actually that it was a good time to buy. I was far more equivocal. I said it might be, and that we won't know until we know, which, sadly, is always the case. All we can do is guess, same as the agent who tells you to wait a year. But people who buy when everyone else around them is losing their head tend to do very well. We won't know the "bottom" until the market is on its way up again. Incidentally, the sales ratio in north Tacoma today is 18%, up 2% from last week. I believe that five years from today, if you could look back at a purchase you made today you would be very happy that you paid such a low price and saw good appreciation, whether it was the exact bottom or not. (MAYBE)

01/07/09 @ 13:00

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